Under the guidance of the "trade-in" policy, the attention to the price war in the auto market seems to have decreased. Recently, many domestic auto companies have successively announced their limited-time car purchase rights and subsidy policies for June.

In terms of subsidy strength, the limited-time car purchase subsidies of most auto companies in June remain high. Compared with the limited-time rights in May, the limited-time subsidies of most auto companies in June are mostly the same as last month, and some models have even narrowed, and only a small number of models have increased their preferential strength.

Specifically, in terms of independent brands, Geely Auto's limited-time car purchase rights in June were adjusted to: cash discounts up to 23,000 yuan, government-enterprise dual replacement subsidies up to 22,000 yuan, and the minimum starting price for all models is 54,900 yuan. In comparison, the maximum subsidy for Geely's comprehensive "trade-in" in May was 63,000 yuan, and the minimum starting price for all models was 50,900 yuan.

In terms of specific models, after comprehensive subsidies, the starting prices of models including Xingrui (picture | configuration | inquiry) series, Xingyue series, Boyue series, Dihao series, Haoyue series, new Binyue, Binrui COOL, and ICON series in June also increased compared with May. Of course, although Geely's preferential policies for fuel models have shrunk, in order to stimulate sales growth in the new energy sector, Geely Auto has also launched a limited-time 15,000 yuan factory replacement subsidy for Geely Galaxy.

Xiaomi Auto's limited-time car purchase rights in June remain the same as in May, and it is still a limited-time gift of Nappa leather seats worth 8,000 yuan, and Xiaomi's intelligent driving enhanced intelligent driving function is free for life.

For Leapmotor, compared with the preferential policies in May, the car purchase rights of models such as C10, new C11 and C01, and new T03 in June are basically the same as last month, but the optional fund worth 2,000 yuan/unit (T03 is 1,000 yuan/unit) and the compulsory traffic insurance subsidy of 950 yuan/unit have been cancelled.

As for NIO, for June, NIO continued to offer a 10,000 yuan trade-in subsidy, the "buy four get one free" electricity rental rights for the BaaS bill, and the right to use NOP+ for free for one year. However, although the optional fund was adjusted from 13,000 yuan to 18,000 yuan, the 60 free battery swap coupons were adjusted to 40, which is equivalent to a disguised increase of 2,000 yuan in cash. Overall, the rights and interests have not changed much.

For joint venture brands, the preferential strength of FAW-Volkswagen Lanjing, Lanxun, Tanyue, Tanying, Magotan, CC family and other models and new energy models such as ID.7 VIZZION, ID.6 CROZZ, ID.4 CROZZ in June is basically the same as in May. The comprehensive preferential strength of models such as Tansong, Sagitar, and Bora has been increased on the basis of May, with an increase of 3,000 yuan. After the preferential strength of Golf was increased by 5,000 yuan, the comprehensive preferential strength was as high as 30,000 yuan.

As for Changan Mazda, the Mazda 3 Angkesaila 2.0L automatic transmission model still starts at 89,900 yuan, limited to 1,000 units, as of June 30. With a huge discount of 1 billion yuan, the 2024 Mazda CX-5, Mazda CX-50, and Mazda CX-30 remain the same as in May.

From the car purchase policies recently announced by the above-mentioned automakers in June, it is not difficult to find that compared with the first quarter, the price changes in the domestic auto market have become smaller and smaller in the past two months, and the price war between automakers seems to be tending to "stabilize". There is no doubt that from the perspective of long-term development, the return of price competition to stability and gradual cooling is more conducive to the long-term and healthy development of the auto market.

However, there are also voices in the industry that since June to August is generally the traditional sales off-season for the domestic auto market, the auto market has entered the off-season, but the price war has cooled down. This is also likely to have a certain impact on the auto market in the off-season, and consumers' wait-and-see sentiment may be further aggravated.

First of all, for new energy vehicle companies, the domestic new energy market is still in an era of rapid iteration and continuous involution, and new models equipped with new technologies are constantly impacting the existing market structure. In addition, according to the China Passenger Car Association, the recent domestic new energy market has achieved outstanding results in terms of scale and material cost reduction.

It can be speculated that on the basis of the substantial "cost reduction" results achieved by new energy vehicle companies, as more and more car companies gradually enter the era of "scale", new technologies, new products, and the new price system of new energy vehicles after scale are likely to deepen consumers' wait-and-see sentiment.

In addition, judging from the sales performance in May, as the first full sales month after the release of the "old for new" subsidy details, according to the China Passenger Car Association data, the domestic passenger car retail scale in May was about 1.65 million vehicles, which was still in a state of decline compared with last year, and the decline may reach 5.3%. In fact, this decline means that even if the policy is favorable, the market wait-and-see sentiment is still relatively serious.

Fuel vehicles are also facing the same challenges. Judging from the sales performance of various domestic car companies, since this year, with the continuous increase in the penetration rate of new energy, the share of fuel vehicle companies has been declining. In the past two months, the weekly sales penetration rate of the domestic new energy market has exceeded 50% many times, and the theory that fuel vehicles have become a minority has substantial data support.

In addition, in the first four months of this year, the sales of domestic brand passenger cars reached 4.664 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.7%. The market share officially exceeded the 60% mark. Combining the two sets of data, it is not difficult to find that the market share of joint venture brands with fuel vehicles as the main sales force has also been greatly impacted.

Looking back at 2023, in the face of the continuous rise of domestic brands and domestic new energy brands, automakers including Volkswagen and General Motors have made significant price cuts in July and August. Therefore, with the growing momentum of domestic brands and domestic new energy brands this year, referring to the price war launched by joint venture brands in the off-season last year, it is not ruled out that the potential customers of joint venture fuel vehicles will continue to wait and see.

So in the short term, the price war in the auto market has stabilized, which may also bring new competitive pressure to automakers. Of course, in order to reduce the competitive pressure of price wars among automakers, driven by the policy of replacing old cars with new ones, many places are also accelerating the follow-up of auto promotions.

Recently, Beijing, Chongqing, Chengdu, Hubei Province, Shanxi Province and other places have successively introduced subsidies to promote the "old for new" car replacement. According to the details of the car replacement subsidy issued by Hubei Province, consumers only need to transfer their Hubei licensed passenger cars and purchase new passenger cars in Hubei Province. After completing the registration, they can apply for a one-time subsidy of 2,000-7,000 yuan.

Compared with the rigid regulations of other provinces and cities requiring "scrapping of old models", local car purchase subsidies represented by Hubei Province are obviously more likely to stimulate the consumption enthusiasm of new cars.